Sub-Saharan Africa $53.3 Billion Telecoms Market to 2023

Dublin, Dec. 12, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

Consumers' appetite for digital services will help to sustain revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, but operators will need to invest in new infrastructure.

Telecoms operators in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly focused on developing and monetising data services as the growth of legacy services starts to slow down and consumers increasingly adopt digital services. This report presents Analysys Mason's core forecasts for the region, analyses the key trends and assesses their impact during the next 5 years.

This report and associated data annex provide:

• A 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries
• An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
• An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
• A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

• Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
• Prepaid, contract
• 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
• Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

• Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
• Narrowband voice, VoBB
• DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Voice traffic

Fixed and mobile

• Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

• Service, retail
• Prepaid, contract
• Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
• Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

• Service, retail
• Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
• DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

ARPU

Mobile

• SIMs, handset
• Prepaid, contract
• Handset voice, data

Key Topics Covered:

Executive summary and recommendations

• Telecoms revenue will grow to USD53.3 billion with a CAGR of 2.9% between 2018 and 2023, amidst affordability, regulatory and macroeconomic challenges
• The positive growth in telecoms retail revenue will be largely proportional to the economic growth across SSA
• Geographical coverage: we model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 67.7% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue (excluding pay TV) in 2023
• Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
• Key recommendations for telecoms operators
• Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
• Market context: the 11 countries modelled provided 50.7% of the total population in SSA and 68.8% of its telecoms service revenue (excluding pay TV) in 2017
• Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries

Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market

• Market overview: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue
• Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 17.5% of mobile connections in 2023; 5G is expected to launch in 2019
• Mobile: penetration will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but its growth will slow down due to declining multi-SIM levels
• Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA; ARPU in Sudan will increase due to inflation
• Mobile: SIM penetration growth rates will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services
• Fixed: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate
• Fixed: South Africa will lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration in the region thanks to its more-developed infrastructure and competitive market
• Fixed: increased popularity of wireless services will cause fixed broadband revenue to fall, while the growth of NGA will help to stabilise ASPU over the next 5 years
• Fixed: fixed broadband services offer strong growth opportunities from a small base but they will remain inaccessible to the majority of the region's population
• Business services: enterprise revenue is small, but is growing more rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions
• IoT: cellular M2M revenue growth will be substantial, but connectivity revenue will remain small
• Pay TV: the overwhelming majority of the pay-TV market will be split between satellite and pay-DTT platforms

Individual country forecasts

• Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite the modest growth in the number of SIMs
• Ghana: reluctance to acquire spectrum will limit the adoption of LTE, and fixed broadband take-up will increase due to fibre network deployments
• Ghana: growth in the number of mobile connections will be modest, but a growing demand for data, financial services and fibre will boost revenue
• Ghana: forecast changes
• Kenya: the mobile market has potential for growth, and cable's popularity and fibre deployments will support the fixed market revenue growth
• Kenya: the accelerated adoption of 4G will drive traffic growth; cable will lose its dominant position in the fixed broadband market to fibre
• Kenya: there are solid revenue growth prospects for mobile money and data services; fixed broadband adoption will benefit from better access
• Kenya: forecast changes
• Nigeria: difficult economic conditions will continue to affect the telecoms market in terms of investment and spend
• Nigeria: increased 4G coverage and improved smartphone affordability will support the demand for data services
• Nigeria: there is room for mobile revenue growth despite the crowded market; fibre will represent a third of fixed broadband connections by 2023
• Nigeria: forecast changes
• South Africa: service revenue will grow with a modest CAGR of 1.4% between 2018 and 2023, driven by handset data and fixed broadband
• South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy, and the fixed market will benefit from investment
• South Africa: improved rural network coverage will help the number of mobile connections to grow, and investment will boost broadband take-up
• South Africa: forecast changes
• Tanzania: service revenue will reach TZS2.9 trillion in 2023, and more than 52.2% of this will be from mobile handset data
• Tanzania: the newly awarded 700MHz band for 4G usage will help to improve coverage and access to high-speed mobile data services
• Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite competition, while the fixed market will benefit from investment
• Tanzania: forecast changes
• Uganda: mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will help to grow the service revenue to more than UGX3.4 trillion by 2023
• Uganda: 4G services will be adopted slowly because of a lack of affordability, limited network coverage and low smartphone penetration
• Uganda: there are opportunities for moderate mobile revenue growth, but fixed broadband holds more potential
• Uganda: forecast changes

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6x22rs/subsaharan?w=12

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