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Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe of the ruling Liberal Democratic party faces a challenge from Yuriko Koike, leader of the Party of Hope.
Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe of the ruling Liberal Democratic party faces a challenge from Yuriko Koike, leader of the Party of Hope. Photograph: Kimimasa Mayama/EPA
Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe of the ruling Liberal Democratic party faces a challenge from Yuriko Koike, leader of the Party of Hope. Photograph: Kimimasa Mayama/EPA

Japan's general election: all you need to know

This article is more than 6 years old

The North Korea threat looms large over the 22 October election, but Shinzo Abe plans to play the strong and stable card against challenger Yuriko Koike

Why did prime minister Shinzo Abe call an early election?

It is all about timing. Japan wasn’t due to hold an election for the powerful lower house until the end of next year, but Abe spied an opportunity to take advantage of a weak and divided opposition. In addition, his approval ratings have recovered since the summer, when he was implicated in two education-related scandals.

With echoes of his UK counterpart Theresa May, Abe has argued that Japan needs strong and stable government at a time of domestic and international uncertainty. Unlike May, however, his gamble is likely to pay off.

He is expected to win approval for his hard line against North Korea’s missile and nuclear programmes, but he could struggle to convince voters of his plans to go through with a rise in the consumption (sales) tax in late 2019. The measure, which Abe says is needed to fund social security spending and later to pay down Japan’s debts, is unpopular with the public. He has tried to sweeten the move by promising a 2 trillion yen ($17.8bn) stimulus package to fund childcare, education and social care for the elderly.

There is also an element of personal ambition: a comfortable win for Abe’s coalition would improve his chances of staying on as Liberal Democratic party (LDP) president next September, enabling him to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister.

Who is Yuriko Koike?

Koike shook up Japanese politics in the summer of 2016 when she became the first female governor of Tokyo. Despite once serving as Abe’s defence minister during his first, short-lived, stint as prime minister a decade ago, Koike defied the LDP to run for the governorship and then formed a local party that routed her erstwhile colleagues in Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections in July.

Her decision to return to national politics with the launch of Kibo no To (Party of Hope) on the day Abe dissolved parliament prompted speculation that she was about to transform the country’s political landscape. But just days into the campaign, there is markedly less talk of the Party of Hope as a credible alternative to Abe’s LDP after several disappointing poll results.

Whatever happens, Koike – who decided not to run for the lower house herself in order to continue as Tokyo’s governor – will remain an influential figure. The former news anchor and Arabic speaker has described herself as a “conservative reformist” who wants to take on vested interests. A defence hawk who admires Margaret Thatcher, Koike also supports legislation to ban discrimination against Japan’s LGBT community and has described herself as a “compassionate conservative”.

The election probably came too soon for the Party of Hope, but winning several dozen seats would lend credence to its claims to be a serious opposition party.

What are the main issues?

North Korea aside, the early phase of the election campaign focused on the proposed increase in the sales tax, from 8% to 10%, in two years’ time. While Abe insists the extra revenue is needed to fund social security spending, Koike has said she would freeze the hike and provide a basic income to poorer households.

Her economic agenda – dubbed “Yurinomics” after her given name – is short on detail. She has spoken in general terms about promoting private sector investment though a combination of deregulation and taxing companies’ huge retained earnings, while ditching the aggressive public spending and monetary easing that have characterised Abe’s five years in office.

Nuclear power is also on the agenda, almost seven years after the triple meltdown in Fukushima. Abe is pushing for nuclear reactor restarts that he says will lower Japan’s dependence on expensive fuel imports and help it meet its climate change commitments. Koike wants to phase out nuclear power by 2030 and increase renewables’ share of the energy mix to just under a third.

Intriguingly, the Party of Hope’s platform vows to achieve “12 zeroes” – including “zero hay fever” and “zero abandoned pets”.

How big a factor is the North Korean nuclear crisis?

Abe has put the perceived threat from North Korean missiles at the heart of his campaign, not least because polls show most voters support his hard line against Pyongyang. Along with the low birthrate and large elderly population, North Korea’s missile programme represents a “national crisis” for Japan, Abe has said.

The regime has sent two ballistic missiles over the northern island of Hokkaido in recent weeks, triggering alerts and calls for Japan to develop the ability to strike North Korean military site.

North Korea fires another missile over Japan – video

Which party is expected to win?

With less than a week to go, it is looking as if Koike will have to settle for a distant second. In contrast to the excitement that greeted her party’s sudden arrival on the political scene, Koike has been criticised for her high-handed approach towards liberal deserters from the Democratic party who had showed an interest in running as Party of Hope candidates.

Some voters have questioned her decision to get involved in national politics while she is still in charge of a city of almost 14 million people. The absence of any real ideological differences between Koike and Abe, particularly on security, may tempt LDP voters to stick with the party they know, rather than the Tokyo governor’s newly formed band of “conservative reformers”.

One poll this week even suggested that the LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, could come close to retaining their two-thirds “supermajority” in the lower house. The Nikkei business paper put the coalition on course to win 290 seats in the 465-seat chamber. That was roughly in line with polls taken by other media organisations. The Nikkei survey projected Hope would win 69 seats, with the Constitutional Democratic party, a left-leaning group that wants to preserve the constitution, on just over 40 seats.

Will it be business as usual if Abe’s party retains its majority?

Abe has show little interest in altering his economic policy – a mixture of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reform. The Tokyo stock exchange’s recent rise to levels not seen since the mid-1990s, plus encouraging growth and employment figures, will only reinforce his belief that so-called Abenomics represents Japan’s best chance of ending two decades of stagnation.

The sales tax rise, though, could hit already weak consumer spending – a drawback Koike has pointed out in the run-up to polling day.

On foreign policy, Abe will continue to take a tough stance on North Korea and cultivate his relatively good relationship with Donald Trump.

Another five years in office will give Abe perhaps his last chance to pursue his long-held dream of revising Japan’s constitution. For postwar conservatives like Abe, the US-authored “pacifist” constitution places unfair constraints on the country’s self-defence forces and is rooted in irrational fears of a return to the disastrous militarism of the first half of the 20th century. At the very least, Abe wants the constitution to clarify the role of the country’s self-defence forces (SDF) to reflect new security challenges posed by a rising China, North Korea and international terrorism.

Domination of the lower house by the LDP and the Party of Hope, which also supports constitutional reform, could give him the mandate he needs. Revision requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Japanese parliament and a simple majority in a national referendum. The strongest opposition could come from the public, 35% of whom support enshrining the SDF in the constitution, according to a recent poll, with 42% opposed.

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